The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index dipped 3.4% in August to a level of 4,911. Year to date through the first eight months of 2021, the stock index was up 7.4%.
Hotel stocks continued their streak of relative underperformance in August as investors remained focused on the impact of the Delta variant and the likely changes to post-Labor Day business travel trends, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. The near-term trajectory of the recovery has flattened; however, investors appear to have priced in near-term downside scenarios, in our opinion, and they continue to look to 2022 and 2023 when the broader travel environment should be more normal versus today.
August performance, still shaped by continued strong demand from the American leisure traveler, came in lower than the July peak but still at a healthy level overall, said Amanda Hite, STRs president. With the summer of travel behind us, all eyes are now on the fall season, which traditionally has been buoyed by corporate group demand. Unfortunately, the Delta variant has already caused major meetings cancellations, and it seems that the industry will have to wait a bit longer for that segment to return at a significant level. Whereas last year leisure travelers continued to generate room demand well into the fall, we expect softer demand this year with schools back in-person.
In August, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell behind both the S&P 500 (+2.9%) and the MSCI US REIT Index (+1.8%).
The Hotel Brand sub-index fell 5.4% from July to 8,506, while the Hotel REIT sub-index increased 2.5% to 1,221.
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index was set to equal 1,000 on 1 January 2000. Last cycle, the Index peaked at 3,178 on 5 July 2007. The Indexs low point occurred on 6 March 2009 when it dropped to 573.
The Hotel Brand sub-index was set to equal 1,000 on 1 January 2000. Last cycle, the sub-index peaked at 3,407 on 5 July 2007. The sub-indexs low point occurred on 6 March 2009 when it dropped to 722.
The Hotel REIT sub-index was set to equal 1,000 on 1 January 2000. Last cycle, the sub-index peaked at 2,555 on 2 February 2007. The sub-indexs low point occurred on 5 March 2009 when it dropped to 298.