e˗forecasting.com released today editorial highlights with visuals for the flash estimate for U.S. monthly real gross domestic product, which summarize that the King of Statistics “rose by an annual rate of 1.7% in January, from the previous month, an eight-month increase in a row for monthly-GDP,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, Editor-in-Chief, U.S. monthly˗GDP Digest™.
A popular “economic growth” analytic – easily understood by the public for its role for businesses and jobs, and importantly used in the same format by news media in reporting and analyzing globally economic policies – is the ‘number’ of quarterly growth rate in real GDP (annualized), which is offered in the press releases, by the official statistics offices, when quarterly data in national accounts are updated. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.7%) in the three months to January 2021 from the previous period, three months to October 2020.
In other words, consistent with popular domestic and international quarterly measures (four numbers in a year), “America’s economic growth in high frequency, twelve data points a year, posted an annualized three-month rolling (quarterly horizon), change of (+1.7%) in the month of January 2021.” To put current growth into perspective, “January’s percent change in monthly-GDP™ is (-1.2 percent points) below a six-decade, 1959-2020, average long-term growth rate of (+2.9%),” Dr. Simos added.
The latest issue of U.S. monthly-GDP Digest™ envisions a unique summary measure on the position of the economy in the U.S. business-cycle, focusing on the risk for an upcoming monthly recession, derived from the up-to-date estimate of monthly-GDP™. e˗forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, “… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 6.6% in January 2021, down from 12% in December 2020.” When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy.
Monthly GDP at “today’s prices,” which is officially called the market value of United States’ output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current market prices, posted a reading of $21,731 million. In business vocabulary, the size of the American market for doing business today is $22 trillion.
In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator – seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 – increased by an annual rate of (+4.4%) in January, from the previous month, to an index reading of 115.4. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, “…inflation for what America produces or buys runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+4.4%),” e˗forecasting.com’s Fed-watcher noted.
Kefallonia, Inc. DBA e-forecasting.com, is a private research and predictive intelligence consulting firm optimizing dynamically its ambitious scope of providing clients creative, innovative, disruptive, and science-modeled predictive analytics for what’s next.