Today’s preliminary (second) monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes $51 billion more GDP in August, formed on refreshed, complete and revised source data, than were available for the flash August estimate released earlier this month.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+10.5%) in the three months to August 2020, and hence based on two-month factual data envisions an about 10% growth-path in the third quarter, which is a “natural” growth slowdown as the economy converges to pre-crisis potential growth rates.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a derived upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes “…a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 89.7% in August, down from 99.9% in July…”, said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, October 2, 2020.
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