e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 3.0 percent in August, following an increase of 2.7 percent in July.
All seven components individually modeled – had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP , the economic Leading Analytic, eLA, modeled in a business-cycle system creates monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions.
By visualizing the findings,”…the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 15 percent in August…”said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last Aprils mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards the 50% line for the second time in a row, the August reading confirms the economys return back to its growth path towards potential GDP , Simos added.
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