U.S. Monthly GDP on a Growth Path of (+2.0%) in April

e-forecasting.com’s U.S. monthly GDP, monthlyGDP ™, fell in April by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.2% to $18,920 billion of chained 2012 dollars expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, following an increase of 0.2% in March.

A popular “growth” number for economic performance – used by news media and well understood by the public – refers to the annualized quarterly growth rate in real GDP computed from the official quarterly data of the national accounts. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly GDP, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.0%) in the three months to April 2019 from the previous period, three months to January 2019.

Infographic - USmonthlyGDP™ April 2019                                                  

April’s reading of the rolling three-month growth rate “was 1.3 percent point(s) below the country’s potential 88-year average growth rate of 3.3%.” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor of this Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

In sum, the latest evidence from US monthly GDP reveal that…”US economic growth in the second quarter of 2019 is in a slowdown growth path of the business cycle,” Simos added.                                                                                                                 

Monthly GDP at “today’s prices,” which is officially called the market value of United States’ output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current market prices, posted a reading of $21,196 billion. Globally thinking, the size of the American market for doing business is about $21.2 trillion today.                                                                                                                                                   

Lastly, the price index for monthly GDP, officially called the GDP price deflator – seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 – increased by an annual rate of (+2.0%) in April from the previous month to a level of 112.1. In other words, using the price index of monthly GDP, “…U.S. inflation runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+2.0%).

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