A measure of future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in June according to the highlights in the latest issue of the Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Digest. e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite of nine predictive analytics which gauge what's next for U.S. hoteliers, increased by 0.2% in June to 138.7, following an increase of 0.2% in May. The index is set to equal 100 in 2010.
“Five of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) analytic had a positive contribution to its change in June: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; New Orders; and Vacation Barometer; four indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in June: Hotel Worker Hours; Yield Curve; Oil Prices; and Housing Activity ” said Evangelos Otto Simos, Digest's editor and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The probability for the hotel industry entering a recession in the next six to nine months, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 6.1% in June, up from 5.4% in May. When this predictive analytic passes the threshold probability of 50% for more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle in about six months later.
e-forecasting.com, a USA private, international research and business intelligence consulting firm, provides its clients sophisticated, scientifically-modeled and disruptive predictive analytics for what's next.